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  • 25 of october Profiting from U.S. presidential elections might just be the ultimate form of democratic capitalism. So when the media spin surrounding the 2004 elections started gaining momentum, I decided to join the politically inspired pollsters and bumper sticker peddlers in finding and exploiting the inefficiencies resulting from predicting election results. I suppose it should not have been surprising that the time tested Arbitrage Pricing Theorem was equally applicable in the political arena... 

    Learn more about Presidential Arbitrage and how you can profit from it.

  • 4 of november
    Quantitative finance is a challenging subject. However, financial practitioners don't exactly go out of their way to make the topic more accessible to outsiders. One problem is the language barrier, separating quants from the rest of the world. The following article makes light of a profession that has a tendency to take itself too seriously.  

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     Potpourri  
    As the title suggests, the following books do not easily fit into any of the other categories and, in fact, represent a collection of potentially incongruous items. About half of these books focus on the culture of financial services institutions. These are worth considering for readers who are new to this field and wish to gain an inside view of financial organizations, without having gained much real-life exposure. Two of the books touch on subjects that are related but not essential to the study of finance. And lastly, two of the books focus on unconventional (i.e. unproven) approaches to quantitative finance. 

    The Elegant Universe (Brian Greene) -- This book provides a fascinating and accessible overview of contemporary physics. Focusing on superstring theory, the author does an excellent job of conveying complex subject matters in a lucid manner. I definitely recommend this book but should point out that the text is meant as an introduction to this emerging subject and its popular science style is not suited for practicing physicists or anyone looking for rigorous explanations.

    Turing (A Novel about Computation) (Christos H. Papadimitriou) -- Papadimitriou is considered one of the world's authorities in theoretical computer science and he is the author of countless scientific publications. But the idea behind this particular work is to teach computer science by the means of storytelling. It is my opinion that the book exceeds expectations in this regard. You can see my full review here

    The Predictors (Thomas A. Bass) -- This is the true story of a group of physicists who leveraged their expertise in chaos theory to predict market movements. Last time I checked, this group was still operating a hedge fund out of California but it is unclear how successful their venture has been. But then again, anyone who claims to consistently predict market movements in a profitable fashion is suspect to me.

    Ugly Americans (Ben Mezrich) -- This fairly recent book plays in Tokyo and follows a group of expat traders in their quest for the ultimate trading idea. The author is better known for his very popular book Bringing Down the House, the true story of how the MIT blackjack team used group card counting strategies to win millions. If you are interested in the mathematics of blackjack you also need to read  Edward Thorp's classic Beat The Dealer and Peter Griffin's book The Theory of Blackjack.
    Liar's Poker (Michael Lewis) -- Liar's Poker is considered a classic. The book is slightly outdated by now as it focuses on the junk bond kings of the 1980s but I definitely still consider it worth a read. The investment business is cyclical and it is quite probable that a similar group of characters is presently emerging, covering a completely different asset class -- so read and learn!
    F.I.A.S.C.O (Frank Partony) -- This is the more contemporary version of Liar's Poker. In it, Frank Partony gives a first hand account of the problems introduced by the complexities of today's derivatives instruments. If you've never heard of inflation-adjusted products, currency-linked fixed income instruments, collateralized debt obligations, or structured products in general, this book can serve as a gentle (albeit superficial) introduction. 
    When Genius Failed (Roger Lowenstein) -- Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was a hedge fund comprised of some of the most brilliant financial minds of our time. And yet, the fact that LTCM included two Nobel prize winning economists did not seem to matter when the fund had to be bailed out by a consortium of Wall Street firms in 1998. I recommend this inside account of the rise and fall of LTCM, as it serves as an important reminder of human fallibility. 
    Probability and Finance - It's only a Game! (Glen Shafer et al) -- I don't recommend this book. The price tag is too high for what you get. I would consider it more of a history lesson than a proper finance book. The authors try to put a new game theoretical spin on a well understood subject but nobody in the literature seems to have taken their work seriously.
    The (Mis)Behavior of Markets (Benoit Mandelbrot et al) -- The appeal of this book stems mostly from the fact that Mandelbrot is a well-known chaos theorist. His approach to financial modelling is novel but it is not yet clear what the practical impact will be.


 





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